GRAGEPOLITAN-Sebanyak empat kandidat calon Presiden muncul pada penjaringan usulan nama capres dari Partai Nasdem. Masing-masing Anies Baswedan, Ganjar Pranowo, Erick Thohir dan Airlangga Hartarto.
Penjaringan Capres tersebut sebagai ganti konvensi Capres 2024 yang sebelumnya diagendakan Partai NasDem.
Menanggapi hal ini,
Peneliti ahli utama Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional (BRIN) Siti Zuhro mengungkapkan, NasDem memang dikenal sebagai pelopor untuk penjaringan pemimpin untuk dimajukan dalam kontestasi pemilihan umum kepala daerah (pilkada) maupun presiden dan wakil presiden (pilpres).
“Partai NasDem selalu sejak mulai lahir ikut pemilu selalu memimpin untuk mendahului. Selalu dia leading mencalonkan siapa yang tepat baik untuk pilkada maupun pilpres. Sekarang juga menjaring politisi lain,” ujar Siti, Rabu 11 Mei.
Menurutnya, ada pertanyaan besar terkait penjaringan nama yang dilakukan NasDem yakni sejauh mana nama tokoh yang terjaring mampu mendatangkan keuntungan untuk NasDem.
“Ini bisa memberi nilai tambah yang luar biasa kepada NasDem atau tidak?” lanjutnya.
Terkait dengan nama Ganjar Pranowo yang masuk dalam penjaringan nama, Zuhro mempunyai pendapat berbeda.
Zuhro mengulik sejarah keberadaan Jusuf Kalla (JK) yang kala itu dipinang Partai Demokrat. JK memang tidak diajukan Golkar namun ia berhasil menjadi ketua umum di partai berlambang beringin itu. Sedangkan Ganjar sulit untuk menjadi ketum.
“Itu apakah bisa di-copy paste dengan Ganjar di PDIP. Itu pertanyaan besar menurut saya,” tegasnya.
Apalagi, menurut Zuhro, kultur politik masing-masing partai sangat berbeda. Sehingga NasDem harus memperhitungkan apakah kultur politik PDIP dan Ganjar mampu memberikan nilai tambah yang luar biasa bagi partai yang merekrut.
“Budaya politik di internal PDIP itu tegak lurus. Sementara Golkar tidak punya tegak lurus, faksi-faksi. Jadi berapa elite itu punya pengaruh masing-masing,” tegasnya.
Selain itu, Ganjar masih harus menghadapi Puan Maharani di internal PDIP. Puan dinilai tidak akan mundur dari konstestasi 2024 karena akan berdampak pada tampuk kepemimpinan partai.
“Menurut saya Mas Ganjar sudah jelas akan menghadapi Mbak Puan. Mbak Puan tidak mungkin mundur selangkah pun, Bu Mega dalam hal ini. Beda dengan pemilu sebelumnya,” tegasnya.
Direktur Eksekutif Poltracking Indonesia Hanta Yuda AR juga mengapresiasi konvensi NasDem meski tidak jadi dilaksanakan.
Hanta menilai mekanisme penjaringan aspirasi dari bawah sebagai ganti konvensi juga tidak menghilangkan substansi demokrasi.
“Secara idenya, harapan saya, tidak jadi konvensi ini tapi substansi dari konvensi itu tetap diakomodir tetap dijalankan NasDem,” ujar Hanta.
Menurut Hanta, dari beberapa nama yang berhasil dijaring, ada dua nama kuat yang bukan berasal dari elite partai, yakni Anies Baswedan dan Ganjar Pranowo. Kedunya bisa terjaring karena modal elektabilitas.
“Ganjar dan Anies bukan orang kuat, bukan orang partai. Meski Ganjar kader partai, tapi bukan siapa-siapa. Juga tidak memiliki struktur kekuasaan yang strategis. Sehingga modal mereka adalah modal elektabilitas,” ujar Hanta.
Sedangkan nama Airlangga Hartarto mendapati irisan dengan Ganjar dalam hal latar belakang. Airlangga saat ini menjabat sebagai Ketum Partai Golkar. Sehingga ketika NasDem menjaringnya, maka akan lebih mudah dalam proses pembentukan koalisi. Sedangkan Ganjar tidak dalam posisi seperti Airlangga.
“Sementara kalau Ganjar bisa dengan koalisi atau tidak koalisi dengan partainya Ganjar yaitu PDIP. Apalagi di PDIP sudah ada nama Mbak Puan,” tegas Hanta.
Hanta mengajukan kemungkinan terkait Ganjar maju dengan dukungan partai lain atau tetap bertahan di PDIP. Menurutnya, Ganjar harus mengkalkulasi karena ia punya modal elektabilitas. Kalau Ganjar bisa seperti Jokowi yang akhirnya didukung PDIP dalam pilpres, maka layak Ganjar bertahan.
Sebaliknya, kalau kalkulasi Ganjar ujungnya tidak bisa ikut kontestasi karena PDIP mendukung Puan, maka Ganjar harus mengambil langkah strategis agar bisa naik gelanggang 2024.
“Jadi Ganjar ini dilema. Semua berpulang pada Ganjar,” tandasnya.
Hanta juga mengungkapkan kemungkinan risiko ketika Ganjar merapat ke NasDem demi 2024, maka akan mengakibatkan gangguan dalam hubungan NasDem dan PDIP.
“Ini semakin menganggu hubungan personal maupun partai. Kalau mengusung nama ini ya berpotensi makin mengentalkan jarak itu atau menjauhkan jarak itu,” terusnya.
Begitu pula ketika Puan maju dari PDIP dan Ganjar dari partai lain maka akan sangat mungkin menggerus suara maupun dukungan PDIP terhadap masing-masing calon.
“Risikonya kalau dua-duanya maju, tentu pecah dukungan PDIP,” tegasnya.
Sebab itu, Hanta menggariskan ketika PDIP mengajukan Puan dengan strategi tidak memberi ruang Ganjar untuk ikut serta dalam kontestasi, maka suara PDIP akan bulat. Puan akan berhadapan dengan calon dari poros lain.
“Jadi kalau Puan betul-betul mau disiapkan maju dari PDIP, sama pentingnya memajukan Puan itu dengan ‘menjegal’ Ganjar untuk tidak bisa bertarung,” terusnya.
Hanta juga mengajukan tiga poros yang diprediksi memainkan peran penting dalam Pemilu 2024 yakni Gerindra dan PDIP yang mengajukan Prabowo-Puan.
NasDem dengan Golkar dan partai di luar pemerintah yang mengajukan nama Anies Baswedan, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, dan Airlangga Hartarto.
Jokowi didukung beberapa partai akan mengusung Ganjar Pranowo dan Erick Thohir. Selain itu ada pula skenario lain dengan dua poros.
“Bisa jadi ketika Puan dan Prabowo berpisah, maka akan muncul dua poros saja yakni Ganjar vs Anies atau Prabowo vs Anies dan Ganjar. Masih dinamislah,” pungkasnya.(G-06)
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